Crit Care. 2009 May 19;13(3):R72.

Model for predicting short-term mortality of severe sepsis.

Adrie C, Francais A, Alvarez-Gonzalez A, Mounier R, Azoulay E, Zahar JR, Clec'h C, Goldgran-Toledano D, Hammer L, Descorps-Declere A, Jamali S, Timsit JF; the Outcomerea Study Group.

INSERM U823, Epidemiology of Cancer and Severe Illnesses, Albert Bonniot Institute, BP 217, 38043 Grenoble, France.


ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: To establish a prognostic model for predicting 14-day mortality in ICU patients with severe sepsis overall and according to place of infection acquisition and to sepsis episode number.

METHODS: In this prospective multicentre observational study on a multicentre database (OUTCOMEREA) including data from 12 ICUs, 2268 patients with 2737 episodes of severe sepsis were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 1458) and a validation cohort (n = 810). Up to four consecutive severe sepsis episodes per patient occurring within the first 28 ICU days were included. We developed a prognostic model for predicting death within 14 days after each episode, based on patient data available at sepsis onset.

RESULTS: Independent predictors of death were logistic organ dysfunction (odds ratio (OR), 1.22 per point, P < 10-4), septic shock (OR, 1.40; P = 0.01), rank of severe sepsis episode (1 reference, 2: OR, 1.26; P = 0.10 >/= 3: OR, 2.64; P < 10-3), multiple sources of infection (OR; 1.45, P = 0.03), simplified acute physiology score II (OR, 1.02 per point; P < 10-4), McCabe score ([greater than or equal to]2) (OR, 1.96; P < 10-4), and number of chronic co-morbidities (1: OR, 1.75; P < 10-3, >/= 2: OR, 2.24, P < 10-3). Validity of the model was good in whole cohorts (AUC-ROC, 0.76; 95%CI, 0.74 to 0.79; and HL Chi-square: 15.3 (P = 0.06) for all episodes pooled).

CONCLUSIONS: In ICU patients, a prognostic model based on a few easily obtained variables is effective in predicting death within 14 days after the first to fourth episode of severe sepsis complicating community-, hospital-, or ICU-acquired infection.


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